Title Doomed firms : an econometric analysis of the path to failure / P.J. Cybinski.
Imprint London : Routledge, 2018.


 Internet  Electronic Book    AVAILABLE
Description 1 online resource
Series Routledge revivals
Routledge revivals.
Note Originally published 2003 by Ashgate Publishing.
Bibliog. Includes bibliographical references and index.
Note Available only to authorized UTEP users.
Online resource; title from PDF title page (EBSCO, viewed December 19, 2018).
Subject Bankruptcy -- Econometric models.
Business failures -- Econometric models.
Contents Cover; Half Title; Dedication; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; List of Figures; List of Tables; Preface; PART I: THEORETICAL ISSUES; 1 Introduction; 1.1 The Distress Continuum; 1.2 Study Methodology; 1.3 Background and Position of the Book; 1.4 Structure of the Book; 1.5 Publications; 2 Precursors and Challenges in the Literature; 2.0 Introduction; 2.1 The Pioneering Models; 2.1.1 Beaver (1966) -- Univariate Models; 2.1.2 Altman (1968) and Early Followers -- Multiple Discriminant Analysis Models; 2.2 The Research of the 1980s -- The Logit Model; 2.2.1 Ohlson (1980); 2.2.2 Zavgren (1983)
2.3 The Choice of Independent Variables and Theories of Bankruptcy2.3.1 Models from the Probability and Statistics Literature; 2.3.2 The Cash Flow Model; 2.4 The Time Dimension and Macro-Economic Conditions; 2.4.1 Rose, Andrews and Giroux (1982); 2.4.2 Mensah (1984); 2.4.3 Kane, Richardson and Graybeal (1996); 2.5 Statistical Methodology; 2.5.1 Zmijewski (1984); 2.5.2 Marais, Patell and Wolfson (1984); 2.6 The Distress Continuum; 2.6.1 Survival Analysis; 2.6.2 Formal Models; 2.6.3 Gilbert, Menon and Schwartz (1990); 2.6.4 Flagg, Giroux and Wiggins (1991) -- A Failing Company Model
2.6.5 Multivariate Time Series Process -- Theodossiou (1993)2.6.6 Hill, Perry and Andes (1996); 2.7 Emerging Technologies; 2.7.1 Neural Networks; 2.7.2 Chaos Theory; 2.7.3 Latest Techniques; 2.8 Major Challenges and Future Directions; 2.9 Conclusion; 3 Failure of Firms as Process: A New Modelling Methodology; 3.0 Introduction; 3.1 Problems in Empirical Single-Equation Bankruptcy Analysis; 3.1.1 Estimating Probabilities of Failure; 3.1.2 A Critical View; 3.2 Emergent Research Objectives; 3.2.1 Valid Accommodation of the Available Data into Appropriate Models
3.2.2 Addressing the Problem of Sample Selection Bias3.2.3 Improving Model Specification for Relevance over Time; 3.2.4 Improving Model Specification to Reflect Dynamics; 3.2.5 Improving Model Completeness; 3.3 A New Methodology; 3.4 Constructing and Testing General Multi-Equation Models; 3.4.1 Techniques for Estimating the Parameters in a Linear Simultaneous System of Equations; 3.5 Applying Multi-Equation Models to the Area of Financial Distress; 3.5.1 A Family of Models for Estimating the Risk of Failure; 3.6 Conclusion
PART II: EMPIRICAL ISSUES: TOWARDS A DYNAMIC MODELLING OF FINANCIAL DISTRESS4 The Internal Environment: The Financial Ratios; 4.0 Introduction; 4.1 The Relationship Between the Financial Variables and Financial Distress; 4.1.1 Modelling Bankruptcy; 4.2 The Ratios; 4.3 The Data; 4.3.1 Missing Values; 4.3.2 Measurement Problems: Extreme Values and Confounded Ratios; 4.3.3 Ratios where Measurement Problems Existed; 4.3.4 Descriptive Statistics: Mean Values For The Ratios by Lag Year; 4.4 The Binary Dependent or Outcome Variable -- A Definition of Failure
Summary This title was first published in 2003. This book provides a much-needed comprehensive and up-to-date treatise on financial distress modelling. Since many of the challenges facing researchers of financial distress can only be addressed by a totally new research design and modelling methodology, this book concentrates on extending the potential for bankruptcy analysis from single-equation modelling to multi-equation analysis. Essentially, the work provides an innovative new approach by comparing each firm with itself over time rather than testing specific hypotheses or improving predictive and classificatory accuracy. Added to this new design, a whole new methodology - or way of modelling the process - is applied in the form of a family of models of which the traditional single equation logit or MDA models is just a special case. Preliminary two-equation and three-equation models are presented and tested in the final chapters as a taste of things to come. The groundwork for a full treatise on these sorts of multi-equation systems is laid for further study - this family of models could be used as a basis for more specific applications to different industries and to test hypotheses concerning influential variables to bankruptcy risk.